New Seat Details - Cities of London and Westminster

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Cities of London and Westminster been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	24,247	44.9%
CON	22,718	42.1%
LIB	5,004	9.3%
Green	1,208	2.2%
UKIP	503	0.9%
OTH	303	0.6%
LAB Majority	1,529	2.8%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Cities of London and Westminster: Map

List of old seats forming part of Cities of London and Westminster

Old seat: Cities of London and Westminster

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cities of London and Westminster, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cities of London and Westminster				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City of London	Aldersgate	1,451	Cities of London and Westminster	418	345	207	10	22	0	0	14	1,016
City of London	Aldgate	24	Cities of London and Westminster	6	7	4	0	0	0	0	0	17
City of London	Bassishaw	5	Cities of London and Westminster	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
City of London	Billingsgate	13	Cities of London and Westminster	3	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	9
City of London	Bishopsgate	94	Cities of London and Westminster	26	26	11	1	1	0	0	1	66
City of London	Bread Street	14	Cities of London and Westminster	3	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	10
City of London	Bridge	36	Cities of London and Westminster	10	10	5	0	0	0	0	0	25
City of London	Broad Street	22	Cities of London and Westminster	7	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	15
City of London	Candlewick	14	Cities of London and Westminster	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	10
City of London	Castle Baynard	257	Cities of London and Westminster	81	57	34	2	4	0	0	3	181
City of London	Cheap	13	Cities of London and Westminster	3	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	9
City of London	Coleman Street	2	Cities of London and Westminster	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
City of London	Cordwainer	9	Cities of London and Westminster	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	6
City of London	Cornhill	12	Cities of London and Westminster	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	8
City of London	Cripplegate	2,105	Cities of London and Westminster	573	546	287	15	30	0	0	24	1,475
City of London	Dowgate	26	Cities of London and Westminster	8	6	3	0	0	0	0	0	17
City of London	Farringdon Within	491	Cities of London and Westminster	143	122	64	3	7	0	0	4	343
City of London	Farringdon Without	494	Cities of London and Westminster	148	123	63	3	5	0	0	3	345
City of London	Langbourn	5	Cities of London and Westminster	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
City of London	Lime Street	1	Cities of London and Westminster	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City of London	Portsoken	649	Cities of London and Westminster	145	223	71	4	6	0	0	5	454
City of London	Queenhithe	272	Cities of London and Westminster	82	67	36	2	3	0	0	1	191
City of London	Tower	142	Cities of London and Westminster	40	37	17	1	2	0	0	2	99
City of London	Vintry	3	Cities of London and Westminster	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
City of London	Walbrook	5	Cities of London and Westminster	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
City of Westminster	Bryanston and Dorset Square	5,300	Cities of London and Westminster	1,760	1,335	404	20	85	0	0	10	3,614
City of Westminster	Churchill	5,498	Cities of London and Westminster	1,186	1,817	263	29	57	0	0	39	3,391
City of Westminster	Hyde Park	5,386	Paddington and Queen's Park	1,750	1,517	313	50	79	0	0	16	3,725
City of Westminster	Knightsbridge and Belgravia	3,769	Cities of London and Westminster	1,819	813	221	20	60	0	0	17	2,950
City of Westminster	Marylebone High Street	4,772	Cities of London and Westminster	1,797	1,045	407	16	78	0	0	9	3,352
City of Westminster	St James's	5,952	Cities of London and Westminster	1,680	1,457	463	63	87	0	0	15	3,765
City of Westminster	Tachbrook	4,942	Cities of London and Westminster	1,454	1,163	341	49	60	0	0	9	3,076
City of Westminster	Vincent Square	5,967	Cities of London and Westminster	1,619	1,591	341	64	85	0	0	39	3,739
City of Westminster	Warwick	5,491	Cities of London and Westminster	1,680	1,274	381	59	67	0	0	9	3,470
City of Westminster	West End	4,836	Cities of London and Westminster	1,551	1,243	315	18	83	0	0	52	3,262
	Total	58,072		18,006	14,858	4,268	429	821	0	0	272	38,654

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cities of London and Westminster seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Holborn and St Pancras

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Holborn and St Pancras, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Holborn and St Pancras				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Camden	Bloomsbury	5,016	Cities of London and Westminster	1,094	3,090	321	85	166	0	0	9	4,765
Camden	Camden Town with Primrose Hill	7,929	Camden and St Pancras	1,284	3,615	382	38	189	0	0	14	5,522
Camden	Cantelowes	7,429	Camden and St Pancras	742	3,766	481	44	179	0	0	3	5,215
Camden	Gospel Oak	7,232	Camden and St Pancras	977	3,382	300	97	160	0	0	12	4,928
Camden	Haverstock	7,751	Camden and St Pancras	831	3,772	558	96	176	0	0	2	5,435
Camden	Highgate	7,653	Hampstead	1,159	3,105	301	44	184	0	0	3	4,796
Camden	Holborn and Covent Garden	7,466	Cities of London and Westminster	1,152	3,916	335	39	194	0	0	27	5,663
Camden	Kentish Town	8,619	Camden and St Pancras	931	4,189	427	92	211	0	0	3	5,853
Camden	King's Cross	5,625	Camden and St Pancras	810	3,491	334	38	161	0	0	2	4,836
Camden	Regent's Park	7,590	Camden and St Pancras	1,128	4,176	306	112	183	0	0	16	5,921
Camden	St Pancras and Somers Town	8,611	Camden and St Pancras	727	4,842	274	43	175	0	0	3	6,064
	Total	80,921		10,835	41,344	4,019	728	1,978	0	0	94	58,998

The full details of these calculations are given on the Holborn and St Pancras seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Westminster North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Westminster North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Westminster North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City of Westminster	Abbey Road	5,469	Cities of London and Westminster	2,113	1,801	183	0	46	0	0	5	4,148
City of Westminster	Bayswater	4,920	Paddington and Queen's Park	1,452	1,877	430	0	63	0	0	6	3,828
City of Westminster	Church Street	6,332	Paddington and Queen's Park	787	3,388	117	0	54	0	0	18	4,364
City of Westminster	Harrow Road	6,440	Paddington and Queen's Park	919	3,335	148	0	62	0	0	10	4,474
City of Westminster	Lancaster Gate	5,140	Paddington and Queen's Park	2,140	2,262	395	0	75	0	0	6	4,878
City of Westminster	Little Venice	5,545	Paddington and Queen's Park	1,697	1,934	260	0	58	0	0	5	3,954
City of Westminster	Maida Vale	5,689	Paddington and Queen's Park	1,445	2,067	216	0	53	0	0	5	3,786
City of Westminster	Queen's Park	7,054	Paddington and Queen's Park	860	3,586	139	0	59	0	0	15	4,659
City of Westminster	Regent's Park	6,097	Cities of London and Westminster	2,103	2,099	210	0	60	0	0	6	4,478
City of Westminster	Westbourne	6,750	Paddington and Queen's Park	907	3,585	154	0	65	0	0	15	4,726
	Total	59,436		14,423	25,934	2,252	0	595	0	0	91	43,295

The full details of these calculations are given on the Westminster North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Cities of London and Westminster

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Cities of London and Westminster
Camden	Bloomsbury	7,115	Holborn and St Pancras	1,094	3,090	321	85	166	0	0	9	4,765
Camden	Holborn and Covent Garden	8,455	Holborn and St Pancras	1,152	3,916	335	39	194	0	0	27	5,663
City of London	Aldersgate	1,617	Cities of London and Westminster	418	345	207	10	22	0	0	14	1,016
City of London	Aldgate	27	Cities of London and Westminster	6	7	4	0	0	0	0	0	17
City of London	Bassishaw	6	Cities of London and Westminster	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
City of London	Billingsgate	14	Cities of London and Westminster	3	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	9
City of London	Bishopsgate	105	Cities of London and Westminster	26	26	11	1	1	0	0	1	66
City of London	Bread Street	15	Cities of London and Westminster	3	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	10
City of London	Bridge	40	Cities of London and Westminster	10	10	5	0	0	0	0	0	25
City of London	Broad Street	24	Cities of London and Westminster	7	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	15
City of London	Candlewick	15	Cities of London and Westminster	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	10
City of London	Castle Baynard	287	Cities of London and Westminster	81	57	34	2	4	0	0	3	181
City of London	Cheap	14	Cities of London and Westminster	3	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	9
City of London	Coleman Street	2	Cities of London and Westminster	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
City of London	Cordwainer	10	Cities of London and Westminster	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	6
City of London	Cornhill	13	Cities of London and Westminster	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	8
City of London	Cripplegate	2,347	Cities of London and Westminster	573	546	287	15	30	0	0	24	1,475
City of London	Dowgate	29	Cities of London and Westminster	8	6	3	0	0	0	0	0	17
City of London	Farringdon Within	547	Cities of London and Westminster	143	122	64	3	7	0	0	4	343
City of London	Farringdon Without	551	Cities of London and Westminster	148	123	63	3	5	0	0	3	345
City of London	Langbourn	6	Cities of London and Westminster	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
City of London	Lime Street	1	Cities of London and Westminster	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City of London	Portsoken	723	Cities of London and Westminster	145	223	71	4	6	0	0	5	454
City of London	Queenhithe	304	Cities of London and Westminster	82	67	36	2	3	0	0	1	191
City of London	Tower	158	Cities of London and Westminster	40	37	17	1	2	0	0	2	99
City of London	Vintry	3	Cities of London and Westminster	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
City of London	Walbrook	5	Cities of London and Westminster	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
City of Westminster	Abbey Road	6,116	Westminster North	2,113	1,801	183	0	46	0	0	5	4,148
City of Westminster	Bryanston and Dorset Square	5,753	Cities of London and Westminster	1,760	1,335	404	20	85	0	0	10	3,614
City of Westminster	Churchill	5,398	Cities of London and Westminster	1,186	1,817	263	29	57	0	0	39	3,391
City of Westminster	Knightsbridge and Belgravia	4,695	Cities of London and Westminster	1,819	813	221	20	60	0	0	17	2,950
City of Westminster	Marylebone High Street	5,336	Cities of London and Westminster	1,797	1,045	407	16	78	0	0	9	3,352
City of Westminster	Regent's Park	6,603	Westminster North	2,103	2,099	210	0	60	0	0	6	4,478
City of Westminster	St James's	5,996	Cities of London and Westminster	1,680	1,457	463	63	87	0	0	15	3,765
City of Westminster	Tachbrook	4,895	Cities of London and Westminster	1,454	1,163	341	49	60	0	0	9	3,076
City of Westminster	Vincent Square	5,951	Cities of London and Westminster	1,619	1,591	341	64	85	0	0	39	3,739
City of Westminster	Warwick	5,524	Cities of London and Westminster	1,680	1,274	381	59	67	0	0	9	3,470
City of Westminster	West End	5,193	Cities of London and Westminster	1,551	1,243	315	18	83	0	0	52	3,262
	Total	83,893		22,718	24,247	5,004	503	1,208	0	0	303	53,983

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Cities of London and Westminster. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Unknown (changed seat) (LAB)
County/Area:	City of Westminster (London)
Electorate:	83,893
Turnout:	64.3%

Cities of London and Westminster: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Cities of London and Westminster: Overview

Introduction